Saturday, June 25, 2016

How Bookies got EU vote wrong


Despite offering odds based on remain win, firms set to profit from biggest political betting event in British history




Guardian:
Ladbrokes has admitted that betting markets got the EU referendum outcome completely wrong and will have to “face up to some tough questions”.
As the polls closed on Thursday night, Ladbrokes was offering 4-1 on an out vote, with its betting suggesting that a remain verdict was a 90% certainty.
But with much more money bet on remain than leave, the bookies are likely to turn a large profit.  
In a candid statement, Ladbrokes’ head of political betting, Matthew Shaddick, said: “The truth is that bookies do not offer markets on political events to help people forecast the results. We do it to turn a profit (or at least not lose too much) and in that respect, this vote worked out very well for us.

“Nobody at Ladbrokes’ HQ will be criticising the predictive powers of our odds, they’ll be looking at the money we made.”
More than £40m was gambled in the biggest political betting event in British history.
William Hill said one woman in central London placed her first ever bet by putting £100,000 on the UK voting to stay, while another woman, from Kingston, south-west London, gambled for the first time by staking £10,000 on leave. 
Shaddick said one reason why the bookies were so wrong was that most political betting was done by the relatively well-off, who were behind remain, and this affected the odds.

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